The Outlook Tab: Season Projections, Playoff Odds, and Where Your Dynasty Is Headed
announcement · feature · analytics
Standings are a snapshot of where you've been. The new Outlook tab shows where you're going.
Season Projections for Every Team
The Outlook tab runs a Monte Carlo simulation of your league's remaining schedule and surfaces three numbers for every team:
- Est. Wins — projected final regular-season win total
- Playoff % — probability of making the postseason
- Title % — probability of winning the championship
The simulation uses Sleeper's own player projections and recent game stats to estimate scoring, applies your league's actual roster settings, and runs the schedule hundreds of times to produce probability distributions rather than single-point guesses. A team sitting at 60% playoff odds might be 7-3 with a soft schedule ahead — or 5-5 in a wild race where three wins separate 1st from 8th.
Where Your Season Could Go: The Outcome Sankey
For your team specifically, the Outlook tab shows an outcome Sankey — a branching diagram that traces your possible paths through the rest of the regular season, the postseason bracket, and into the offseason. Follow the widest branch to see your most likely outcome. Follow the narrow ones to see what the long shots look like.
For leagues with a set schedule, the Sankey paths reflect your actual opponents and their current strength. For leagues still scheduling, the simulation uses a dynamic bracket built from standings.
Most Valuable Next-Year Picks
The Outlook tab also shows a most-valuable next-season picks table. Based on the same simulation, it estimates the pick-slot distribution for every team's first-round pick next year, showing p10/p90 ranges for where each pick is likely to land. If you're holding or trading a future first, this tells you what it's probably worth — and how wide the uncertainty band is.
Completed Seasons
For completed seasons, the Outlook tab switches to replay mode and overlays the actual outcomes on the preseason projection. See how accurate the model was and where the biggest surprises were.