How Our Draft Grading Works: VORP, Roster Fit, and Revisionist Scoring Explained
methodology · draft
A useful draft grade needs more than a comparison to rankings. It needs to account for who was actually available, whether the pick fit the team's needs, and how the player has performed since.
Two Grades, Two Questions
Every pick receives two independent letter grades:
- Draft Day Grade: Was this the right pick at the time, given the available players and roster needs?
- Revisionist Grade: Knowing what we know now, how good was this pick? (Only shown after 90+ days)
A pick can earn an A on draft day and an F in hindsight (a consensus pick that busted), or a C on draft day and an A+ in hindsight (a reach that turned into a star).
VORP: Value Over Replacement Pick
The foundation of both grades is VORP, but not the generic kind. Instead of comparing against a pre-built model, we use the actual draft pool. For each pick slot, we calculate the best available player remaining from that point forward in the draft.
If you picked the best player on the board, you get full VORP credit. If you reached past a player who was significantly more valuable, the grade reflects that reach. This approach is more accurate than pick-value charts because it uses real draft context: the specific players that were available when you picked.
Roster Fit (Rookie Drafts Only)
In rookie drafts, fit matters. Drafting a third running back when you need a wide receiver isn't the same as filling a starting hole. Our fit evaluation classifies each pick as:
- Starter Upgrade: Replaces a current starter with a higher-value player. Bonus scales with the improvement.
- Starter Fill: Fills an empty starting slot. High-value pick for roster construction.
- Depth: Adds bench depth at a position. Neutral grade.
- Redundant: Same position already selected earlier in the draft. Slight penalty for not diversifying.
The Draft Day grade weights VORP at 70% and roster fit at 30%. Filling a roster hole with the best available player earns the highest grades.
Startup vs. Rookie Detection
The system automatically detects startup drafts (5+ rounds) and adjusts. In a startup draft, you're building your entire roster from scratch, so every pick is a "starter fill." We skip the fit evaluation entirely and grade purely on VORP.
Revisionist Grading: The Hindsight View
After 90 days, picks receive a revisionist grade that blends three weighted components:
VORP (30%)
The same draft-day VORP carries into the revisionist grade. This anchors the score to process: a smart pick that didn't work out still gets partial credit for being the right call.
Value Growth (35%)
Has the player's dynasty value increased or decreased since draft day? We use a square-root curve for balanced sensitivity:
- Holding steady (1x) = B grade
- Doubling in value (2x) = A+ grade
- Losing half value (0.5x) = F grade
Current Value (35%)
This component ensures elite players are properly rewarded. A player who was already highly valued and maintained that elite status should score well, even if their percentage growth is modest. We blend relative and absolute value, and the final score uses whichever is higher. A dynasty asset worth 10,000+ always scores in A-territory here.
Team Report Cards
Every team gets a report card showing both their Draft Day GPA and Revisionist GPA, ranked against the league. Expand any team to see individual pick breakdowns with VORP, fit analysis, and both grades side by side.
Toggle between "Draft Day" and "Revisionist" views to see how the league's draft opinions change with hindsight. The team that "won" the draft on draft night isn't always the one that won it six months later.